From history to immortality

As most of you know, there's a reason why the media swarms around semifinals, Conference Championships, and the Final Four. Each team is just one game removed from the sport's biggest stage, and after weeks of muddled brackets, it's finally pretty simple: win and play for everything, or go home and never get the chance. Your accomplishment is already cemented in history, the glory is still fresh, but your work goes on towards immortality. Quick, who played for the 2010 NCAA Basketball championship? Who were the losing semifinalists? The answer to one question is historically significant; the answer to the other is legendary.

In the next 48 hours, four teams will take the field with this in mind. Two will play next Sunday. Doesn't get much simpler than that.

My predictions:

Netherlands beats Uruguay, 3-1
Much of the focus surrounds the suspension of Luis Suarez, as the man who saved their World Cup journey is forced to possibly watch it end. However, Diego Forlan is skilled enough to unlock a Netherlands defense that hasn't exactly answered every threat it's faced.

The more problematic absences are in defense, as Jorge Fucile and Diego Lugano are unavailable to deal with Sneijder et al. This is the inescapable difference between the two sides, as the Dutch have too many skilled dribblers for Uruguay to stop with a patched-up back line. After 90 minutes, La Celeste will know that their holes in defense were larger than the Suarez-shaped one up front, as the Dutch dominate play.

Germany beats Spain, 2-0
Incredibly difficult game to predict, because everything hinges on who scores the first goal. If Spain score first, they're able to spread the whole field and play keep-away until the clock strikes 90:00. However, when Germany has scored first, they've frustrated every opposing offense by committing their disciplined men behind the ball, counter-attacking to quickly put games out of reach. Each team has thrived all tournament when scoring first, yet both experienced group-stage hiccups when someone else beat them to it. Thus, my prediction is that whoever draws first blood will dominate the rest of the match.

With that said, who is more likely to strike first? To be honest, Spain have looked subpar to me all tournament: Torres has struggled to hit the net, the midfield's passing game has lacked precision, and the defense has given away quite a few more balls than usual. Even Iker Casillas has looked less than luminous. Thus far Spain hasn't been made to pay, thanks to still-superior talent, a slate of very defensive teams (Chile aside), and David Villa's best Superman impression. However, Germany has looked world-class in the knockout rounds, showing virtually no glaring weaknesses and looking clinical as ever. True, form is temporary while class is permanent, so Spain could revert to their Euro-winning ways. However, without seeing any evidence of this in the last 5 games, I have to think that Schweinsteiger and co will find the weak point and hammer away.

FINAL: Germany beats Netherlands, 2-1
If this match-up happens, expect the entirety of Holland to collectively wet themselves in a combination of excitement and fear. You can read further in David Winner's excellent Brilliant Orange, but basically the Dutch have a continual inability to beat the Germans when it matters, a cultural anxiety which the 1974 World Cup final did nothing to change.

This may not change anything at a tactical level, but from a personnel standpoint, no way this German side ends its ruthless streak against a Dutch defense that let Robinho walk right in on net. Goals could come from anywhere with such a matchup of two stellar squads, but the German defense has looked far likelier to keep out more of them. Given the combination of both ancient and recent history, I'm not betting against the German side.


It's a shame, too. I've always disliked that only 7 nations have ever won a World Cup, and both Holland and Spain are distinguished enough as soccer powers to deserve becoming the 8th. Even Uruguay would be enough of a throwback to please me, but my gut tells me to listen to Gary Lineker's infamous definition of soccer: "22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes, and in the end, the Germans win." I'll be rooting hard against it, but something tells me that won't matter much.

Always Believe, or Why I Fear Being a Journalist

At the kickoff of the USA-Egypt game, you know what I wanted to write? I was going to call out Bob Bradley for playing almost all of the starters in the "last" game against Egypt, instead of giving younger players like Freddy Adu a chance to prove themselves on a grand stage. I was going to make a case that Bob Bradley grossly mishandled multiple aspects of this tournament, continuing in the opportunity-squandering tradition of Copa America 2007. In short, like many Americans, I wanted some kind of change, in coach, players, and tactics.

I wasn't trying to condemn us as a soccer playing nation. I honestly thought that this was the best move going forward, that the team from the first two games was too far away from succeeding in a major tournament. I assumed that our best chance of developing as a national team was to focus on the next generation. I gave up.

 

Want to know where I was during the first half of the Spain game? Working. 

Understandable, I couldn't get off from work on short notice, so I taped the game and ignored all updates. What baffles me is why I decided to then go to a museum, instead of rushing home to watch the game as soon as possible.

I guess I was in no rush because while I was eager to see my team play the world's best, in no way did I ever think we had a chance at actually beating them. I just wanted to analyze how we played against such quality opposition, almost as an academic exercise. I gave up.

You hate my attitude by this point, right? Think I refused to have faith? Well, you're right, and about more than you think too. You couldn't find an article before Egypt-USA that didn't mention opinions such as how our "slim hopes" had "likely ended" and how the team was "regressing before our eyes". You could barely find anyone who, however bullishly or misguidedly, had confidence that the United States would find a way to win against Spain. Sure, we hoped. I hoped against all hope that we could pull one out, dreaming of the greatest result anybody has ever seen by the Stars and Stripes. But nobody even gave their own hopes credibility or possibility, "knowing" by common sense that we dreamt foolishly.

 

The rest of the media and the nation gave up on our team. I was wrongfully more critical of the past out of sheer exasperation, but our expectations for the future were all the same: the U.S. has no shot. It wasn't just me: we all gave up.

Except for the nationals themselves, of course. You won't find a quote from one of them that even hints at any lack of self-belief. Of course, they're trained not to give anything but positive indications, but before the game you could even hear the resolution in their voices and words. They believed that their efforts were worth something, not only morally but practically, giving them the ability to succeed. Witness Landon Donovan: "Good team, big challenge, looking forward to it... We're gonna go for it."

As journalists, it's our job to analyze the big picture, to see every aspect of an issue and come to a conclusion. In this case, the correct conclusion was that Spain were heavy favorites. It is, however, a shame that the very job description makes few allowances for that confident, brash, human emotion of self-belief. Objectively, there is no way in journalism to justify such a fanatic outlook in the face of such an immense task. But

undoubtably, it is that very attitude that propelled the USA to its shining hour.

If Michael Bradley seemed like he was a bit unthankful for the result handed down by Brazil when speaking after the Egypt game, we should forgive him. "All the fucking experts in America, everybody who thinks they know about soccer, they can all look at the score tonight and let's see what they have to say now," he said at the time. "Nobody has any respect for what we do, for what goes on on the inside, so let them all talk now."

He couldn't have known that his statement was premature. He couldn't have known that it would have been the perfect response to the world media after a victory over Spain that will give everyone pause before writing off the U.S. again, a victory that could be the first step towards world recognition and respect. No, the U.S. didn't know that at the time. They just believed it.

Maybe as fans, we should all put aside probabilities and analysis, and just start believing. After all, that's what the U.S. team did, and look where they are now.